We are now nearing a moderate La Nina and this month with such needs to have a certain pattern so read on for details …
Before you read on please look at the scale below …
LA NINA …
Weak: -0.5 to -0.9
Moderate: -1.0 to -1.4
Strong: -1.5 to -1.9
Super: -2.0+
We are in the blue highlighted one above … Nearing the end of it and approaching a MODERATE LA NINA very quickly. A Moderate La Nina is colder than many have forecast so we are certainly looking at a change in the pattern to come … but it does not mean we are out yet here in Southern California. Here is what needs to happen.
First and foremost we will have rain in the SLO/SBA/KERN areas this weekend into early this next week … scattered/isolated of course for VT eastward with the best chances for those areas near the mountain and foothill areas. Such a slider flow does NOT FAVOR the deserts … you will have wind as you are usually use to during the Pacific Storm Season …
This system will NOT be named.
The pineapple express will continue for north of here while we get the crumbs on the table through next week.
Offshore flow returns on after Tuesday for warmer weather and offshore flow (light Santa Ana Winds) …
As for the rest of the season … What you all have been waiting for. The FINAL forecast from me for the 2016-2017 Pacific Storm Season will be released between October 25th and Halloween. This forecast will feature what I expect based off a formula I developed and worked last year from Spring, Summer, and Early Fall patterns. We are at the end of the line pretty soon and we need one more thing to complete a formula being positive for above average rainfall.
We need a blocking ridge west of here to bring a storm southwest of here and give us an average to above average October in Los Angeles. The image below is one of our long range models showing such a storm that could happen … it is not 100%…
IF by Halloween we have not had a good storm pattern for Los Angeles (center of the region) … we will be in trouble for another dry year. I am placing bets on my personal page soon … if you want in … go ahead and friend request me. Click This Link To Do So On Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/scwfweatherman