Southern California Weather Force has issued the Santa Ana Wind Watch effective now for Thursday through Friday of this next week. The Santa Ana Wind Event will be the first stronger event of the system based off the scientific pattern and it will be generated by two out of the three ingredients, so a 60% completion of ingredients needed for these events.
Confidence is high that when a deep Pacific trough moves into the Western United States by Tuesday for the Rockies and Wednesday for the Dakotas that cold air behind it will develop a strong surface high pressure system over the Great Basin. This will be the thermal support needed. The second ingredient will be the gradient support as this developing surface high will be strong enough to work with lowering heights over the bight of Southern California, sending the winds into the area. The current estimation this far out in the 5-day medium range period is around 50 mph in the prone locations.
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The wind will be strongest on Thursday for the Santa Clarita/Ontario/Tehachapi/Colorado River Valley/Morongo Valley areas and maintain strength with Banning/San Diego to Riverside Mountains entering into the mix by Friday as the flow turns more east-northeasterly and opens up those locations. This is a prolonged event pattern lasting more than 36-48 hours and it will accompany warm temperatures, but nothing like 100F. This will have temperatures in the 80s and 90s with low humidity levels and thus this Santa Ana Wind Watch I am issuing is officially a Fire Weather Watch hazard forecast.
Stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force for more information as I crunch my numbers.
As always, stay tuned to official forecasts from Southern California Weather Force for updates …
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