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Southern California Weather Force Press Release – An easterly wave containing the dynamics favorable for shower and thunderstorm activity will move through the forecast region starting tonight, peaking Tuesday morning, and leaving later on Tuesday night, read on for details.
A couple thunderstorms did form over the San Diego County Mountains this afternoon and these have sense weakened. The flow will become increasingly moist through tonight and Tuesday morning and storms out of Arizona and Northwest Mexico will send outflow into Southern California during this period. This will reinforce the mid/upper levels, bringing in strong lifting across the forecast area … along with strong positive vorticity advection.
The ingredients we have for this for Los Angeles County north, east, and southward, including LA/OC/IE/SD/High Desert/Low Desert areas will be;
1. High amounts of mid/upper level moisture.
2. Strong lifting between 18,000 and 28,000 feet
3. Positive Vorticity Advection (Strong)
4. Mid/Upper Level Instability.
This all tells me that what we’re looking at is going to be shower/thunderstorm activity with a high-base, moving from southeast to northwest, curving due north through LA/OC/IE later tonight and into Tuesday morning.
Isolated activity is possible as far west as Ventura and Bakersfield.
Shower/Thunderstorm activity will continue to be possible for the mountain/desert areas on both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons … drying out on Thursday with warmer weather.
There will be no other monsoonal surges this month after this passes …
Upgraded alerts are possible overnight tonight …