Recently values in our super long range models have now pushed El Nino from an above average temperature season to a below average season, with a healthy California snow-pack being more possible, with above normal precipitation for the entire state, severe storms, and a rare locking low pressure pattern to come.
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September through November should be above average in precipitation. Already many areas in Southern California are above the average for September. October and November as an average would close out the Fall season in above average rainfall with above average temperatures expected.
However, come the December, January, and February season an El Nino Pattern is usually warmer than normal. However, with the ‘blob’ of water water in the Pacific drifting westward, we will have a blocking ridge form way out in the Pacific. Now what does this mean?
During the previous seasons we have seen a persistent blocking ridge pattern right off the coast. The end result was the deflecting polar jet up through the Pacific Northwest and into the Central/Eastern United States. At times it came into California, bringing the Inland Empire snowfall of December 31, 2014. For the most part however, this deflected both the polar jet (top) and tropical jet (bottom) and kept California warm and dry.
However, the recent values here at Southern California Weather Force are suggesting the blocking ridge will be there, but way off in the Pacific Ocean. This placement would bring the polar jet (top) up and over it to just off the Western California coast. The deflecting tropical jet (bottom) would go straight into California, mainly Southern. Both jets combined would create a locked low pressure system off the coast at times and this would pump moisture and colder air into California.
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The end result would be an opposite El Nino season if this were to be correct. Warmer than average is the usual El Nino Season, however with this pattern we have both warm and cold storms moving through, resulting in a higher snow-pack forecast for the entire California area’s mountains.
Furthermore, the locked pattern would bring copious amounts of rainfall to the state. Already you should be preparing for this year’s Super El Nino.
Surf will also be enhanced with the low pressure cyclones being very powerful.
The upper level low’s colder air aloft would also bring more severity to thunderstorms along the frontal zones … with severe wind and tornado risks being elevated. Going to go with around 40 tornadoes for Southern California for this year’s El Nino. Most will not be reported; but because I am telling you this, keep your eyes peeled for anything we can count as a tornado report, even a land-falling waterspout is a tornado. Yes, SCWF has the tools to issue Tornado Watches and our models can predict when storms are likely to produce them.