A longer awaited cooling will begin after today and our models in the member section are pegging metro showers developing later this weekend, with higher winds in the desert areas. Read the rest of the article to find out the details.
As of now the system is around four days away and has shallow moisture dynamics so what we’re looking at is mainly a coast/valley/foothill type shower event … with drier levels in the desert zones, reserved for wind conditions developing. But … one of the areas within the forecast area will see rain before everyone else.
Northern and Central California are having rain right now. An upper level system is approaching California and will drag a tail-end charlie into San Luis Obispo County as early as sunrise on Thursday morning. So if you’re within the San Luis Obispo County zones, expected some showers to move on through, possibly down to Santa Barbara and maybe Ventura through the day.
Another upper level low moves in later in the weekend. Details are sketch, but a ridge to the south of us would prevent it from moving too far south over us … and stop somewhere in Central California. This stop will develop a strong surface low over Las Vegas, Nevada. This surface low would bring in a strong onshore flow pattern around that time … ultimately squeezing the low level moisture out over the metro areas south and west of the mountains. This is where our up-slope shower activity will come from. Model 2C and 1E have this pegged very nicely and of course members can see those outcomes in the member section every 12-24 hours before it comes here.
Due to the system not having a full front through the forecast area, it would remain a category 1 in intensity out of the SCWF 1-6 scale and therefore not have a name associated with it.
After this … toward October 10th into the middle part of the month … expecting drier conditions along with an increase in temperatures.
What will the rest of October bring? Well … long range is showing a pretty bland outlook. But do NOT despair. A dry/warm October is common in Super El Nino setups. 1997 and 1982 featured dry and warm Octobers, both were Super El Ninos. Usually things pick up in November … but peak in December through April with those months having the strongest storms. We’re just getting started on the hill up the season path to Super El Nino storm activity.