El Nino has broken the record of a +2.3c departure from average sea surface temperatures in the equator to a +2.4c reading now, a record that has never been broken in recorded history of El Nino values, the last record held by the 97/98 El Nino. A heatwave is coming … and is Andreas going to retrograde back to us? Keep on reading the entire article.
A ridge of high pressure will develop this week and into the end week. This will gradually build up temperatures through Friday and Saturday, bringing heatwave level temperatures to the forecast area through the weekend and even into some of the week after (this next week). Advisories are scheduled to go out by Wednesday or Thursday.
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Pacific Storm Andreas is now pegged in the Long Range Forecast Center in the SCWF Member Section. This will continue to keep track of consistency in our models to show whether or not the storm will indeed come back to Southern California. Yes, I said come back to us. Pacific Storm Andreas is moving into Arizona today, however as the ridge that will bring our heatwave builds, it will be shoved southward. Since high pressure rotates clockwise, the storm would go into Mexico and under the ridge in the six o’clock position by the end of the week and weekend. It then would come out into the Pacific south-southwest of Southern California. Now here is the tricky part … what then?
The storm could continue west and fade into nothing in the Pacific … or … it can move north again and position itself in the Martin Storm Diamond. What is the Martin Storm Diamond? The Martin Storm Diamond is a diamond shaped area Southwest of Southern California that I have researched for many years different storms that move within that section. The diamond represents the zone at which widespread thunderstorm activity would be present for our region should the center of any upper level low travel into the diamond. Confidence is low at the moment due to how far it is … but it remains to be the next focus after the heatwave hits.
Should it hit, it’ll be between October 12-13 and October 14-15. The Southern California Weather Force office will be completed by the time this happens so it would be the first time members would be able to access the doppler radars and lightning detection sections within the website.
Our official press conference at the office will be between October 20th and October 25th, taking about the coming year expectation for the Super El Nino.
Stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force .com