Deja-vu from last week … yet again another tropical cutoff low will move into the region. The expected impact is Friday … and is there a storm system coming in this weekend behind it? Pattern reflects a similar pattern to last week.
The cutoff low that brought the tropical-like clouds over the area since Christmas is moving into position to be pushed back up into our region by Friday. The system has the dynamics like a week ago where we had a deformation-band set-up in the Los Angeles forecast areas with a warm-conveyor belt of moisture for the San Diego/IE and Lower Desert regions. Similar to the last system, it shouldn’t be too hard to forecast for.
Current SCWF Models in the member section are all over the place on ‘location’ of the heaviest rainfall so I’ll have to blend 1E and 2C yet again like before. Confidence in track of this system to bring precipitation back to Southern California is at 75% … so pretty good confidence.
The next system in line after Dante is Pacific Storm Elsa. Elsa will be officially named a couple days before he hits … and she could bring strong winds along the front for areas Los Angeles southward like Dante did. The entire pattern looks pretty similar, however Elsa is showing signs that he could produce more thunderstorms than Dante did.
The snow levels look to be nearly the same as Dante … with resort level snows, crashing by New Years Morning to the High Desert floor. Any residual left-over showers could bring High Desert snowfall again.
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