The heat is on with records falling across the inland Southern California zones today and this weekend it will continue, with an increase in monsoonal moisture region-wide. Read on for details.
Thunderstorms today formed as far west as Lancaster, with storms popping up in the San Diego, Riverside, and San Bernardino Mountain areas, north into the Johnson Valley. Activity is expected to wan down as the evening moves along.
Outflow from storms over Arizona will move overhead by Saturday morning. This outflow will be out of a due east to west flow, which will mark the first actual easterly wave flow this Summer thus far. Activity on Saturday will depend highly on the way the mid-level debris clouds pass over the region. Sometimes, depth reduces instability and even with a nice Easterly wave in the area … these clouds limit storm formation.
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But, will keep these dynamics for inland valley shower and thunderstorm activity for the entire weekend as both heat and outflow boundaries from storms over the mountains to the north and east heighten storm risks, mainly for areas in the mountains and deserts east of Los Angeles proper, including the Inland Empire areas. A severe weather statement has been issued for the Central and Eastern Inland Empire areas here at Southern California Weather Force through the weekend.
Storms forming in the RIV/SD Mountains will shove outflow boundaries off into the Elsinore Convergence Zone … a zone from Lake Elsinore, Perris/Hemet, and Banning. This convergence zone will have enough instability to pop shower and thunderstorm activity out of it.
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Drier low levels with an inverted V-profile showing up on forecast soundings indicated gusty down-burst winds possible with the strongest cells … and larger hail … Additional information will be given as I crunch the numbers …
For all other areas that do not get the summer storm cool-down … expect temperatures to remain above heatwave levels through the weekend … with a cooling period expected this next week, with heat returning in a week … along with another shot of monsoonal moisture. Seems like a pattern this month where we get heat/moisture … cool/dry/normal … then back to heat/moisture and do it all over again. The official July 2017 forecast issued here at Southern California Weather Force seems on track based on what I am remaining to see for the rest of the month. The August 2017 forecast will be issued for members a week before this month ends, with public viewing by August 1st.