Monsoonal moisture is streaming across Southern California this weekend, starting today … and I do have evidence that it may even go as far as affecting areas as far west as Kern, Los Angeles, and Ventura County so read on for details.
Monsoonal Storm Alerts are in place here at Southern California Weather Force and while most of this will be a repeat of those alerts for those of you who have read them, the first thing to talk about is how far west the affects of this easterly wave will go.
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The easterly wave will move through Baja, California today and then off the Southern California coast, a good distance southwest of there. The easterly wave will have a surge of easterly flow with it through the weekend and this, starting today, will be what drives the risks of showers and thunderstorms up. This fast flow may make it possible for activity to make it to parts of the coastal zones as well … with indications that it could even go as fast west as Ventura and Kern County.
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Activity in the Monsoonal Storm Alert zones east of Los Angeles will set up upper divergence and mid-level moisture through LA County overnight tonight, streaming south to north over Ventura and Kern County through Sunday morning. This edge of upper divergence and moisture could make it possible for convective activity to form there, as noted in the ‘Monitoring’ shade on the map included in this article.
As moisture streams through the area on Sunday into Monday for those same areas … elevated instability profiles do suggest an upswing in the risk of thunderstorms .. so the LA/VT/Kern areas are being watched, in addition to the OC zones.
Dry lightning will be possible in ALL areas affected by storms due to drier low level moisture content …
From Previous Alerts
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Issued Zones: Central/Southern/Eastern Inland Empire … Aguanga … Santa Ana Mountains …
Site: Southern California Weather Force has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch effective today …
Date: 7/8/17 at 8:45am PT
Forecast: An easterly wave is coming through the area today, bringing a strong east to west flow over the watch area. High surface temperatures and strong upper divergence will boost instability profiles into the severe storm range … and storms forming over the Riverside County Mountains will move westward and shove outflow into the Inland Empire areas, igniting the Elsinore Convergence Zone.
Storms today will move pretty fast for the monsoon, around 20-30 mph … and this travel will bring them further west and maybe even into the Santa Ana Mountain Range. Storms will contain the risk for hail, strong down-burst winds. .. and landspout tornado activity on the convergence boundary
Forecaster: KM
THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Issued Zones: Northern Inland Empire … all mountain zones except for the Kern, Ventura, Santa Barbara Mountain Range … The Cajon Pass … All Desert areas excluding the extreme Northern Kern County Desert zones and Imperial County (till later on for IMP) …
Site: Southern California Weather Force has issued a Thunderstorm Watch effective today …
Date: 7/8/17 at 8:45am PT
Forecast: An easterly wave is coming through the area today, bringing a strong east to west flow over the watch area. Storms forming within the San Diego Mountains will move westward, impacting zones west of there.
Storms forming across Big Bear may bring outflow south into Yucaipa and the Cajon Pass forecast areas … and all storms forming in the LA/SBD Mountains are expected to shove outflow into the High Deserts later in the period …
Another area being watches is the easterly wave component itself out of Arizona for the Eastern Deserts later on … which could upswing severity and a new alert would go out for an upgrade to severe thunderstorm watch along the CO River Valley …
Instability is not too impressive for Riverside’s forecast area, but you remain in the watch in-case dying storms hit you out of the east later on …
WEATHER ADVISORY
Issued Zones: Western Inland Empire … Orange County Basin near the Foothills … San Diego Valleys …
Site: Southern California Weather Force has issued a Weather Advisory effective today …
Date: 7/8/17 at 8:45am PT
Forecast: An easterly wave is coming through the area today, bringing a strong east to west flow over the watch area. The flow is strong enough so that storms that will be dying as they enter these zones will get a chance of making it … so an advisory means the risk is there for isolated lightning and even shower activity … mainly by the later afternoon and evening …