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The October 2017 Forecast went as expected for the most part, the exception of the very end of the month. This could be expected being Fall patterns are the hardest to predict, along with Spring. The month was hotter than average but what does November 2017 hold? Rain? Dry? Cold? Warm? Read on for details …
The preliminary November 2017 forecast on October 20th for premium members stated that the month will be colder than average, but I went with average rainfall. Given the pattern I’m seeing now we seem to be in a dynamic pattern with several of these tail-end charlie frontal zones, which will produce rain for some of us toward the 4th-5th-6th-7th of this month. The air will be colder than average through that period, but not arctic blast cold.
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Sometime after the 8th and until the 15th will actually be the most seasonal temperatures of the month, believe it or not there will be no heatwaves this month. This is the point where we remain with tail-end charlie systems (heavier north / drier south).
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After the 16th we return to colder than normal from seasonal temperatures across the region. Between the 16th and the 26th is when the trough establishes again and this time instead of tail-end charlie systems where CA is wet and AZ is dry, we get a good flow out of the Pacific to make the entire Southwestern United States have above normal rainfall. Particularly this is the one I’ll be waiting for. We could very well see warmer than normal temperatures, the warmest this month around Thanksgiving due to ridging.
Sometime at the end of the month we start to see slight ridging, which will bring the warmest temperatures of the month. It won’t mean much because the sun angle in November is already low enough to not bring heatwaves into our area. At the same time the ridge will cause drier than normal conditions as we move on into December.
Overall the month will be colder and wetter than average for the metros with colder and average for the deserts. We will see mountain snows with the colder systems as well.
The bars below show what four of my long range models are showing to give you an idea of what to expect with the higher percentages and forecast for temperatures.
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