The tail-end Charlie system is moving across the area right now, with snow reported in the Kern County Mountains. Damaging winds are expected down the I-5 Corridor in the Los Angeles County zones surrounding the Santa Clarita Valley starting this evening. A cold air-mass settles overhead tonight and cold air alerts have been issued. Read on more for details.
With the Winter Weather Watch activated on Monday for the Kern Mountains, I expected a quick hitting round of snow and ice this evening. This has since been fulfilled and is ongoing right now. Not much else can be said about that.
The frontal zone is moving across metros this evening with a chance of showers in LA/OC/IE/SD through some of tonight. As it passes, gusty winds will begin, as well as the rapid drop in overnight temperatures.
A dusting of snow is possible in the San Bernardino Mountains above 4,500 FT, as well as the Idyllwild areas tonight.
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In a flip of a switch later this evening and going through tonight … a strong northwest jet will move into the area, giving a classic I-5 corridor wind-storm that will go from Gorman (Ice) down the I-5 through the SCV and into the LAX areas as well as Hollywood. Wind gusts are expected to be from 35 to 60 mph, with the highest in the SCV/Castaic areas. LAX may have a few delays due to the cross-winds expected so if you are landing or taking off… you could be delayed. The wind storm will last all night.
Cold Air Alerts are in place, including the Hard Freeze Warning in the High Desert –
Hard Freeze Warning – Below 28-26F –
High Desert …
Freeze Warning – 32F and below
Kern/SLO Valleys … Eastern Inland Empire … Morongo Basin …
Frost Advisory – 33F to 38F
Western Inland Empire … Northern OC Basin … Central and Eastern LA Basin … SGV … Ventura Basin … San Luis Obispo Coast .. Lompoc areas …
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Now onto the upcoming pattern.
Due to the unpredictability of the medium/long range this year I will be holding off on long range discussions until a pattern change is set. I should predict dry/warm and then we’ll get slammed with storms at this point …
Even my own long range models are not working out with the current pattern … even at FIVE DAYS OUT …
I will be concentrating on what I can see, such as short/medium range … just as I am doing well with the system moving through today, with numerous advisories out … and a couple more will go out for the RIV/SBD Mtns for your dusting of snow later on …
This is one of the arctic type systems and it dropped too far east for much of anything good for us … I know a week or so ago I started that the SCV would have a classic I-5 corridor wind storm with the coming pattern with the northwest flow and that will be starting this evening and lasting into the night, where I have a high wind warning up.
The pattern this year is an odd one, one I have never seen, and it’ll take a lot to crunch it, meaning the jet stream must be altered by the Sun swinging back north.
Let us hope I am correct in my original thought… that after this month we start to see the storms due to that reason … because if this pattern remains locked we would be having the driest season in recorded history … and I’m not ready to throw the towel in as I still think this looks like 2005-2006 … Where storms started coming after the New Year …
HOWEVER, if you click this article (CLICK HERE) you will see that 9 days ago one of my models predicted a classic I-5 corridor wind event through the Santa Clarita Valley into Western Los Angeles County. This is what is happening with this system tonight. So from now on until the pattern changes, I’ll be using that model for medium to long range forecasting. In using it, there is no doubt in my mind that the pattern will remain dry through Christmas and toward New Years. As the ridge does try to break-down, there’s a chance of precipitation again toward New Years Eve or Day.
But I have to be realistic now and focus on January being when we’ll see the pattern shift. The pattern shift remains able to bring arctic storms in for low elevation snowfall this season … we just need the ridge to shift west some. These systems that are missing us to the east are indeed arctic type systems, we’re just 500 miles too far west, as has been the pattern this season thus far.
Stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force for any additional updates
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