The monsoonal moisture and thunderstorm dynamics should stay inland today, with warm temperatures continuing across the area. The SCWF Thunderstorm and Severe Thunderstorm Watches are placed inland for some of you and I am still monitoring that major surge of monsoonal moisture and dynamics in an easterly wave after today for your Monday and Tuesday so read on for details.
The current atmosphere is primed to bring the development of thunderstorms to the region once again today, but a bit further east than the other day.
The Thunderstorm Model went good yesterday for zones with thunderstorms and without so now we move onto the error tests. I’ll try to explain this as best as I can. The model today shows a key to the lower left and added was the ‘building clouds’ shower category. The dark blue lines are the ‘Test Error Lines’ category for thunderstorm development.
This test shows the algorithm at current and the blue lines are two new algorithm addons to test which one will be correct today.
Both error lines show the Big Bear/High Desert/Morongo Basin/Low Deserts/Riverside/San Diego Mountains having thunderstorms today. The first error line has Hemet as well.. the second does not … This is where the test is today.
What it shows further is I needed a severe thunderstorm watch on the micro-climate alert system for the Morongo Basin from Landers to the Twentynine Palms areas, stretching up to the Northeast SBD County areas at the CA/NV border. I needed a thunderstorm watch for the rest of the areas listed in the third paragraph. Hemet will be just in any alert today as the test but if either error line is wrong then that area won’t see anything.
I’m inclined to lean toward the left error line and shoved Hemet/Banning/Yucaipa/Beaumont/and San Bernardino into a Thunderstorm Watch …
Storm motion today will be southeast to northwest …
For today in the San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino Mountains … Wrightwood … The High Desert … Riverside Deserts … San Diego Deserts … The far northeast/east Inland Empire from Hemet/Banning/Yucaipa/San Bernardino near the mountains … Continued wide upper divergence on the southwest side of the monsoon ridge is keeping the mid/upper flow out of the southeast. This should continue to produce thunderstorm activity across the watch area today. Unlike yesterday, the test will fall on who gets what in the thunderstorm forecast model.
Current thinking is that the San Diego / Riverside / San Bernardino Mountains will go up with the Wrightwood area … then the southeast to northwest flow will take them into the High Desert area, along with the Riverside Mountain storms sending outflow into the Hemet/Banning/Yucaipa/SBD areas for storm activity there.
Later on, convergence will head on over into the desert areas as the onshore flow starts up, finishing off the thunderstorm watch.
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch I issued is for the Morongo Basin to the Northeast / East San Bernardino County Deserts … Including the drive to and from Las Vegas/Needles into and our area of Southern California …
Upper divergence continuing into the area will create additional lift through the afternoon/evening hours, with early development also possible.
This area will have stronger instability, the strongest of the region today. This, with an impulse moving in out of the east will ignite thunderstorm activity, some of which will be severe with damaging downburst winds and some hail.
Storm motion is expected out of the southeast with motion out of the south over Las Vegas. This should produce a dangerous drive so take caution …
As for the rest of the area today .. I’ve removed the High Heat Warnings for the metro zones. Heat Advisories would be required but this wording is good enough. 100F inland with 90s in the basins is a far cry from what we experienced so it’ll feel a bit better out there minus the humidity. Bakersfield you win again! You’re back in the spotlight with 108-111F on my grids in the Kern Valley, outshining the metros again in high temperatures. Could see a pop-up thunderstorm in the far Northern Kern Mountains on the tail-end of activity near Whitney today but no watch will be issued.
As for after this … We will have a strong easterly wave move in with a ‘kink’ in the monsoon ridge after today for Monday and Tuesday. This strong east to west push will make it likely for monsoonal moisture and upper dynamics to finally move far west of the current into areas like San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles County and maybe further west. This is being monitored so stick to Southern California Weather Force for the latest updates over the next 24 hours …
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