The October 2018 forecast went pretty well as we went just above average in rainfall for Los Angeles so what does the rest of this month hold? Read on for details…
I have been away in my nearly annual vacation week near the end of October, just before storm seasons generally start. However this year is different as we already have gone through two pacific storm names here at Southern California Weather Force. November is generally the toughest month to forecast in long range and honestly it is one of my lowest accuracy percentages so things will work out how I say or I may under-perform the month and we get slammed.
Generally the 1960s-1970s era was really good for precipitation in our region and is something I am highly leaning toward this season. We already are slightly below average for the season with a slightly above average October 2018 having the majority of the rain. So with this now being a weak to moderate El Nino and gaining strength each week, it would make sense to push November to have a number of rainfall events in our region, mixed with some offshore flow.
Now to the nitty gritty … Temperatures are above average right now and we will get Santa Ana Winds again this Thursday and Friday, but we will start seeing below average temperatures toward mid-month along with the troughs for precipitation. We however will have slightly above average temperatures toward Thanksgiving and the end of the month. There are many numbers coming up and I need to lean toward the median of such. 0.5″ to 1.5″ of rainfall for Los Angeles would be where I would go with this month along with slightly above average temperatures, the coldest being mid-month, the warmest being now, and the second warmest last week of the month.
Other numbers show a trace of rainfall. Others show a near record month of rainfall. So again.. I will take the median and just take the storm systems as they come here one by one.
My gut is telling me dry up through November 19th for the most part.
Now.. does a drier November mean anything for the winter season should we get one? No, we had drier fall seasons before and wet winter seasons. The fall season in 2016 boded well with a great winter season, ending up in 19″ of rainfall by Spring 2017. So this Fall being what it is ‘thus far’ is not a nail in our rainfall coffin. A moderate El Nino is still what I am going for and this is generally a good thing with better percentages of average to above average rainfall and lower chances of below average rainfall.
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