Hurricane Lorena is affecting Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at this time. The track is very odd right now because the steering winds are very weak. She could go northwest back into the Pacific Ocean or shove north into the Desert Southwest surrounding Southern California and Arizona. Many factors will come into play for Hurricane Lorena’s end track. There is a cutoff low that will enter the Western United States at the end of this weekend.
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Where this tracks will definitely depends on if we see Lorena’s moisture wrap around into Southern California or whether it will be just for Arizona. Arizona will for sure have a flood issue with Lorena this next week there is no doubt about that. The Colorado River also has a good chance at seeing the same as well. Here in Southern California west of the mountains for areas like Los Angeles, The High Desert, The Inland Empire, Orange County, and San Diego County will be iffy right now until I get a better handle on what this cutoff low will do.
If the cutoff system goes too far east, we will deal with a Santa Ana Wind Event and no rain. If it goes directly above Southern California then the wrap-around will give storms to the area and it will obtain a Pacific Storm name due to it being a true cold core cutoff low. Remember as I said though, if you did not renew your alert system e-mails here at SCWF before the first named system, it will go back to the non-discount pricing so better to renew sooner than later.
The October 2019 forecast will be out toward the end of the month. Preliminary estimations are that it will have a number of chances for rain as we remain in a volatile weather pattern across the Western United States and even more chances for tropical systems to bring their moisture up into the Desert Southwest again.
As always, stay tuned to official forecasts from Southern California Weather Force for updates …
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