Issued Zones: All High Desert Metro / AV / Kern Deserts …
Site: Southern California Weather Force has issued a Winter Storm Warning effective Christmas Night through Thursday night …
Date: 12/24/19 at 11:25am PT
Forecast: A strong and cold arctic system will move into the region between 10pm Christmas Night and 10pm on Thursday. This 24 hour period is when the chance of snow will be the highest. There are some indications of the cutoff nature of the system moving a bit more south than expected and while this could keep snow-levels at 4,000 FT for mainly a Cajon Pass and Morongo Basin issue, my snow-level model is working with humidity components in the low levels and an offshore flow into that surface low would make snow-levels much lower than anyone would guess.
No other forecast grid has snow-levels below 4,000 FT, not even NOAA. So this is going to be an extremely tough forecast and I will not get snow amount projections out till over the day on Christmas, however I have developed a snow-risk model from low to extreme and that map is below.
Very similar to the Thanksgiving system, snow-levels were ONLY projected at 4,000 FT but went much lower than that. So I have to keep that in mind. I will turn these watches in winter weather advisories or even winter storm warnings tomorrow (Christmas) should trends continue.
For now I will continue to watch the surface cutoff low. Use the maps below for your snow-risk. It does show less in Lancaster and more toward the Palmdale/Neenach forecast areas, including the GVL/Acton areas so there is something here to monitor.
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10 mile rule: These alerts issued on this site means that within your zone and 10 miles from you will see the event forecast for. You may or may not see the event but it means you are in the zone or 10 miles from where someone will.
Forecaster: KM