Taal Volcano in the Philippines has sent an eruption plume 50,000 FT into the area, moving over Manila and dropping ash as it does so and now exiting the Northern Luzon Coast into the upper level jet stream.  What does it mean for weather in the states?  Read on …

Evacuation orders have been ordered for three towns in Batangas, Luzon.   Flights have been disrupted at Manila International Airport.  The state-run Philippines News Agency reported that minor earthquakes have also been recorded.

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I am estimating based off the current satellite image plume with ejecting ash over 50,000 FT, this volcano will end up at a VEI-4 once completed.  The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) was developed in 1982. It is a relative scale that enables explosive volcanic eruptions to be compared with one another. It is very valuable because it can be used for both recent eruptions that scientists have witnessed and historic eruptions that happened thousands to millions of years ago.  This volcano is special to me because it is the first active one I ever traveled on.  I remember horseback riding up to the crater and feeling the immense hot gases from the cracks nearby and smelling the rotten egg sulfur smell.  I remember shooting a golf-ball in the crater at the top where a small village was established for tourism.  This was over 5 years ago.

What am closely monitoring is how this volcanic plume is entering our upper level jet stream.  As it does so , SO2 will be carried to the United States and this will bring a short term climate cooling to the region.  It is looking far more like Spring 2020 wants to be colder than normal and I said this would happen without the volcanic influence … however with this influence now we will see the effects for cooler than normal temperatures in the spring as well as SO2 reflects Sun’s UV radiation into space, making a lot of the UV radiation miss the ground.  Having such a trough over the area would mean that for once Tornado Alley will see major tornado outbreaks this year.

As with most natural events, small volcanic eruptions are very common, and large eruptions are very rare. The data at left from the United States Geological Survey summarizes the relative frequency of eruptions of various VEI ratings. It clearly shows the rarity of high VEI eruptions – but demonstrates that they are possible events.

The bar graph on this page summarizes the frequency of eruptions with various VEI ratings using data from the Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution for eruptions that occurred between about 10,000 years ago and 1994. Only four eruptions of VEI 7 have been documented, but over three thousand VEI 2 events have occurred. Fortunately, very large eruptions are very rare events.

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