It has been awhile since I updated, but I have been monitoring this cutoff since before October 13th if you have been following my updates. This same cutoff is starting to now move back towards California and it will be a major player in what the stronger arctic storm nearing Washington now will do once it crosses Idaho. We could be looking at a strong inside slider, or a weaker system playing into Arizona, leaving us with a Strong Santa Ana Wind Event come Monday so read on for details.
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As that article on the 13th stated by quote, (Click here for the article) ” The upper system may actually drag a slightly stronger upper level system in a few days after it passes us. We are in what is called cutoff low season so anything is possible with them. I will continue to monitor them and bring you the latest as both confidence and studies permit.”. Almost 10 days ago on monitoring the strong upper level system and the cutoff attaching to the base of the trough is crucial to bring that here. What I do know is that areas Los Angeles westward will see far less than areas in the Inland Empire, Big Bear, Riverside and San Diego Mountain areas. This is an inside slider and while it is still October, it is cold enough to warrant the risk of mountain snow in the areas I mentioned should it aim directly at us, which won’t be known for a couple more days.
If the system gets sucked further west, it would be similar to a November 2004 backdoor cold front in the areas I mentioned above. If it was November 21st or so, the system would have cold enough air for accumulating snow in the High Desert, but the sun angle of October is still up there to keep most of the snowfall in the mid/upper terrain of the mountains.
One thing I do have the most confidence in mentioning is the Santa Ana Wind Pattern that will accompany the system on Monday. Strong northerly winds will prompt my Santa Ana Wind Warnings, the winds being of the cold type though.
That is all I have right now. The main thing for me to do is continue to monitor it this weekend and bring you updates as I develop them. It could easily miss to the east and I don’t want to jump on details right now. Regardless, Arizona is in the perfect position to be hit hard by this. Should the system affect areas east of Los Angeles, it will obtain the first name on the list this season, Asgard – and assigned a category number. Thunderstorms would bring this to Category 3 as well because I would count the Santa Ana Winds as being part of the system. It has to push the cold core over Southern California in order to obtain a name, otherwise no name will be given. So we wait a couple more days for confidence in track to mention the “R” word and will concentrate on Santa Ana Winds. My October forecast for Los Angeles did not mention a system directly hitting us so that is why I’m hesitating on solutions.
Regardless of how this goes, it has enough arctic air within it to fulfill my promise of colder weather to come on the last article (Click here)
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