Southern California Weather Force has issued a Santa Ana Wind Watch surrounding the Thanksgiving time-frame and some areas will be under an Edison Power Shutdown Notice. I also dive into the atmospheric profile and what is happening now to a preliminary estimation on what will happen in December and into the beginning of 2021 along with a brief on the Earthquake Model so read on for details …
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First and foremost let me move onto Thanksgiving. A trough of low pressure will move north of the forecast area. This will bring the base close enough to shove a dry cold-front south-southwest into the metro areas. While not as strong as the previous event, the event will be a moderate to strong Santa Ana. Preliminary estimations indicate that level 5 conditions will happen for the Santa Clarita Valley and some of the Western Inland Empire along I-15 while level 6 conditions hit the Acton/Dulce and Cajon Pass areas. This type of pattern does not favor an east flow for the Hemet areas. Southern California Edison will likely throw a power shutdown notice out as the event gets closer, but being you got it from me… you’ll be more prepared ahead of time.
I’ve also issued a wind alert for Monday into the Kern Mountains. You can view that by Clicking Here.
Turning onto December. My November 2020 forecast for the region with the pie model had a trace to 2″ of rain. We have the trace in Los Angeles with 0.11″ of rain this month and 2″ near the foothills of the inland areas with Major Pacific Storm Asgard, which ended up as a category 4 out of 6 on the Southern California Weather Force scale. So in essence, we are trending to the forecast. December however looks much better.
The pie chart model I developed for November’s preliminary is being used for December. You can note that the area of 2″ of rain is 50% of the pie, which indicates strong systems moving in during the month (Image is in the article top left chart). The current atmosphere is very much like La Nina. But, in my forecast for the season, I did indicate we would have severe thunderstorms in the Great Plains this month if we were to move along the right pattern. The blocking indicates that as we move through the end of Fall and into the Winter we will see a shift in the pattern and the jet stream will afford us more storms down here in Southern California. It was a good decision to move away from the 1970 pattern because we would have a lot more storms by now if I stayed with it. I’m maintaining a complete shift as we move along the season.
As for the California Fault Stress Model. Sure, we had a 5 again in Nevada, but those were aftershocks to the mainshock months ago. There are no new areas popping up and the stress model indicates that as of right now we are in caution, but not in any warning level for major quakes. In terms of the model, it’s pretty stable. We have seen some clusters in Mammoth Lakes and The Geysers, which does indicate unrest in the near-term across the state, but the ULF detection is not showing anything of immediate concern.
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