Southern California Weather Force has issued a Flood Watch that spans from the coast, through the basin/valley zones, into the mountains, and off to the Metro High Desert Locations, with the peak of Tuesday having the worst of the event under category 3 out of 6 conditions so read on for details …
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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER FORCE MAIN:
A powerful Gulf of Alaska storm system will move down to the west of our forecast area over the next 24 hours. As Monday morning moves along, we should start seeing the start of the pre-frontal activity in the Los Angeles, VT, SBA areas with the onset of the southerly flow that will accompany the system. This write-up will only outline what I do expect right now and all official alerts will be issued on MONDAY, including updating the rain, snow, flood risk, and wind models in the member sections.
As Tuesday hits, the system dips a bit further south, which is why I am not going to go Winter Storm Watch like I’m seeing elsewhere. I do not see the need for a Winter Storm Watch in our mountain areas with how far south the system is digging. It will trick models and eventually bring warmer air out of the southwest to up the snow-level. Now, they will come down toward the end of the storm, but as for the bulk of the dynamics, have decided to go with mostly rainfall and the official SCWF Flood Watch does also include the mountain areas. Since this is a southwest to northeast flow, the areas with the most rain will be a classic pattern for Santa Barbara/Ventura’s forecast zones with orographic lifting. It also will bring a lot of rainfall, needed, for the LA/OC/IE areas.
But I must warn you. If you are in a burn scar danger area of the recent 2-3 years, you need to understand that areas like below Oak Glen/Yucaipa’s forecast area especially will have a flood risk within my flood watch.
Thunderstorms will be scarce due to the lack of instability within the warm-core sector of the system. This mostly is a heavy rain event. The exception is in the Kern/SLO areas on Wednesday perhaps with colder air aloft moving in. This will be addressed in the micro-climate alert system and over on the SCWF group as it would be a small coverage area.
Gusty winds will accompany the system start today and going through Wednesday in the mountain/desert areas, with areas along the front in the metros seeing it on Tuesday. Will also get those out over the alert system.
Because of the frontal zone winds and flooding expected. A lack of thunderstorm dynamics along the front would mean this is a category 3 out of 6 system, or in general a moderate storm system we see many times a year.
The SCWF rainfall forecast model is below. Keep in mind this is a general average and some areas with stronger cells along the fronts would see more than predicted.
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VALID MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY – 11-7 TO 11-9-2022
Rainfall in Inches
3.00+
2.00 – 3.00
1.00 – 2.00
0.50 – 1.00
0.25 – 0.50
0.10 – 0.25
Trace
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