Southern California Weather Force has officially upgraded the incoming storm system from Pacific Storm (Category Three) to Major Pacific Storm (Category Four or higher), effective now through Wednesday. Various alerts have been finalized, and maps for rain, flood risk, and wind effects have been released as well as a brief weather outlook for tonight’s Total Lunar Eclipse so read on for details …
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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER FORCE MAIN:
The first of many Major Pacific Storms of the season is starting to arrive. Already, as stated with yesterday article, (Click here for that) the system is bringing areas of light rain through the metro areas of LA/VT/SBA/SLO with winds starting to gust in the mountain and desert regions as the oncoming mid-level jet moves in. Since I do have the maps below, there is not much to write about other than some focus spots so let’s get on with that.
TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE PEAKS TUESDAY MORNING AT 3:00 A.M. PACIFIC TIME – Oh and if you are in the lower deserts like Desert Center to Imperial, ENJOY THE ECLIPSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. As we will be cloudy and rainy in the metros, so clear you will be and enough to view the Total Lunar Eclipse so … this event may be a loss for you in terms of rainfall, but you will have an overnight event to enjoy that we will not.
RAIN/FLOOD/SNOW – There will be a bout of light/moderate rain moving through the LA/OC/IE metro areas by tonight as the onset of the surface front moves through. This will signal the system’s arrival start. As Tuesday moves along, strong southerly flow along the front will bring heavy rainfall through SLO, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Inland Empire’s forecast zones, with heavy rain all the way into the neighboring mountains and into the High Desert zones.
This will bring snow-levels over 8,000 FT as this system initially has warm air advecting out of the south, which is quite common for southerly digging troughs of low pressure west of the forecast area. The main concern will be the burn areas in the Santa Ana and San Bernardino County Mountains where the last major fires were. SCWF Flood Watches issued yesterday in the San Bernardino Mountain range and adjacent southerly slopes have turned into Flood Emergencies.
This will continue off and on through Tuesday night into Wednesday as well, but snow-levels then would drop below the 6,000 FT mark with left-over convective cells can the resorts pick up snowfall as the system exits and colder air moves in. This will happen, and some areas even miles apart will see varied amounts due to this reason. Still, I do anticipate some type of Winter Weather Advisory for the Big Bear zones for later Tuesday into Wednesday morning and will address this as the time comes over the micro-climate e-mail alert system –
Rainfall totals and flood risk for this event is below.
THUNDERSTORMS – The only real chance for a focus spot for thunderstorms will be from around the Castaic zones northwest into Kern/SLO for Wednesday. This area of the forecast zone cannot be pinpointed at the current time, but no thunderstorms will be expected furth south or east of Orange County, but on Wednesday the aforementioned focus spots above will be monitored for weather advisory and/or thunderstorm watch issuance. This would go over the alert system and probably not the main page once issued due to affecting a smaller area of the forecast area.
WIND – Wind will develop strong today across the mountain and desert regions, but they will peak even stronger on Tuesday. There are high indications of dry air in the mid/upper levels on Tuesday that would bring hurricane force winds to the Big Bear forecast zones. That would be about the ‘blue’ area in the wind model below.
LONG RANGE – We are far from done. As per the SCWF November 2022 forecast, the second and third week would be the focus this month,, with even a Santa Ana Wind Event mixed in for mid-month so CLICK HERE to read that.
The following images below are of the SCWF rain, flood, and wind forecast models, finalized for this storm.
Rain Model – VALID MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY – 11-7 to 11-9-2022
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Rainfall in Inches
3.00+
2.00 – 3.00
1.00 – 2.00
0.50 – 1.00
0.25 – 0.50
0.10 – 0.25
Trace
Flood Risk Model – VALID MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY – 11-7 to 11-9-2022
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Emergency
Watch
Advisory
Wind Model – VALID MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY – 11-7 to 11-9-2022
SUPPORTING MEMBERS: Click Here To See The GPS Version Of This Model In Your Member Section Tab.
Raiden Storm Wind Gust Intensity Scale –
8. Extensive widespread damage.
7. Trees are broken or uprooted, building damage is considerable. – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over CERTAIN.
6. SOME Trees are broken or uprooted, building damage is possible. – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Likely, Do NOT recommend Traveling in this zone. This zone also is the starting zone where trees and powerlines will fall and damage cars and even kill people near or in them!
5. Slight damage occurs to buildings, shingles are blown off of roofs. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Possible if weight is not corrected.
4. Twigs and small branches are broken from trees, walking is difficult.
3. Large trees sway, becoming difficult to walk. POWER SHUTDOWN THRESHOLD DURING FIRE WEATHER / WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
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