A storm system that has been watched for quite some time now will move through the region this weekend, lasting into Monday in some spots. It will deliver a cold front that will zoom from west to east, covering the entire metro forecast zone with heavy rainfall and some mountain snow, along with gusty winds along the front and especially the mountain and desert regions so read on for details and see the main model image suite …
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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER FORCE MAIN:
This system will hit Sacramento and San Francisco by later Saturday morning with the peak rainfall. This same front will extend southward through there, beginning to affect San Luis Obispo County through to Vandenberg Space Force Base as well. This will be the initial start of the front.
The center of this front will hit San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara later on Saturday evening/early night, moving from there into Ventura after midnight and before sunrise on Sunday. As that is happening, upslope activity will bring the rainfall into Los Angeles, Orange County, and some of the Western Inland Empire zones, well ahead of the main frontal zone.
Los Angeles will be due for the central frontal zone peak by sunrise on Sunday, with the front extending well south of there, into the bight (island region) of the forecast area, meaning Catalina Island will see the front sweep through around this time. It will continue east from there, hitting the Inland Empire and San Diego over the morning on Sunday, when the Sun should be up. Morning commute through this time will be slow, but it will be a Sunday so there is a plus for you if you are not working.
The front could leak some light rain through to the Imperial Valley areas for your Sunday, but it should also weaken considerably as it does so, and that is where on Sunday afternoon/evening the front sweeps through Las Vegas, giving some rainfall there as well.
There will be a break behind the main front for San Luis Obispo, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, and The Inland Empire zones on Sunday as those areas will be between two fronts, so if you do have something to do on Sunday, once the main front passes you should be fine to travel.
The secondary front, a colder airmass, will be expected over San Luis Obispo to Vandenberg overnight on Sunday, talking near midnight and sweep through the rest of the forecast area early Monday morning. This is where the snow-levels will drop below 4,000 FT and allow for snow to accumulate in the mountain areas. I am not expecting the Grapevine or Cajon Pass to close with this system, but a dusting of snow is likely through Monday morning in both areas.
The secondary front through Monday morning does have the cold air aloft for thunderstorms to be possible in all metro locations. Some of you from SLO through to San Diego and in-between will see these storms then. Storms through Monday morning can produce lightning, hail, gusty winds, and yes even funnel clouds and waterspouts that could landfall as small tornadoes.
LONG RANGE: Another system is in my forecast for the weekend after this, or the weekend of December 17, 2022.
OUT OF OFFICE: I will be out of the office all weekend, so this forecast will be the final forecast. It can change somewhat to reality, but this is the best I can do this far out.
For the rain, snow, and wind models courtesy here at Southern California Weather Force, keep scrolling below …
Rain Model – VALID SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY – 12-12-2022
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Snow Model – VALID LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY – 12-12-2022
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Wind Model – VALID SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY 12-12-2022
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Raiden Storm Wind Gust Intensity Scale –
8. Extensive widespread damage.
7. Trees are broken or uprooted, building damage is considerable. – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over CERTAIN.
6. SOME Trees are broken or uprooted, building damage is possible. – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Likely, Do NOT recommend Traveling in this zone. This zone also is the starting zone where trees and powerlines will fall and damage cars and even kill people near or in them!
5. Slight damage occurs to buildings, shingles are blown off of roofs. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Possible if weight is not corrected.
4. Twigs and small branches are broken from trees, walking is difficult.
3. Large trees sway, becoming difficult to walk. POWER SHUTDOWN THRESHOLD DURING FIRE WEATHER / WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
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