Southern California Weather Force has issued four additional alerts ahead of the strongest storm system not seen since January 2010, making this system an official Category Six out of Six system, the strongest category possible in the Southern California Weather Force system. The Tornado Watch, Severe Thunderstorm Watch, Waterspout Watch, and Winter Weather Advisory have been activated. For those details, along with the rain, snow, and wind models, read on for details …
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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER FORCE MAIN:
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The Long-Range Weather Warning issued back on January 5th outlined the coming storm pattern. After a brief lull, the second Raiden Storm Pattern is about to hit the forecast area, bringing heavy rain, gusty winds, and even a high-risk thunderstorm event. Click here for that earlier warning article.
As quoted in the article, “The storm intensifies on Monday night, finally getting shoved eastward for a direct impact on all regions of the forecast area by Tuesday. This system looks very interesting as per meteorological terms it is known as a negative-tilt system. A negative-tilt system means that colder air aloft will be ahead of the front, something we rarely see. Thunderstorm dynamics will be elevated with this system along the frontal zone, that of which we have not seen yet this season.”
CURRENT DISCUSSION: At the current time, a warm front is located over the western forecast area, bringing rainfall through Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, Kern, and San Lulis Obispo County this morning. This will be on the increase this evening and overnight tonight for those areas, including Orange/Inland Empire. San Diego, you will not get the action until early Tuesday morning so if you have things to do today, enjoy the day. Another round continues across the entire forecast area about through Tuesday.
The round of Tuesday will try to affect the Upper High Desert and Las Vegas with thunderstorm dynamics, that of which will be addressed later on over the micro-climate alert system, not the main SCWF FB Page.
TORNADO WATCH: Southern California Weather Force has issued a Tornado Watch effective this evening through Tuesday later afternoon.
Locations: Ventura, Los Angeles, and Orange County Coast, Basin, and Valleys.
A negative-tilted trough will bring cold air aloft along the main frontal zones and between systems. This will develop surface instability starts this evening but maximizes overnight and into Tuesday. The instability on this is on the order of January 2010’s weather pattern, which this system looks very similar. With the instability being this high, low-level shear, cold air aloft, and strong surface forcing will bring the risk of tornadoes in the watch area. This will move out over the later afternoon/evening on Tuesday and end the watch. In addition to the tornado dynamics, larger hail, flooding, and damaging winds will be likely, which also topples trees and powerlines.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH: Southern California Weather Force has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Wath effective this evening through Tuesday later afternoon.
Locations: San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, San Diego Coast, Basin, and Valley areas … Upper Ventura County Basin … The Inland Empire … SCV …
A negative-tilted trough will bring cold air aloft along the main frontal zones and between systems. This will develop mid-level instability starts this evening but maximizes overnight and into Tuesday. The instability on this is on the order of January 2010’s weather pattern, which this system looks very similar. With the instability being this high, cold air aloft, and strong upper forcing will bring the risk of larger hail, flooding, and damaging winds will be likely, which also topples trees and powerlines.
WATERSPOUT WATCH: Southern California Weather Force has issued a Waterspout Watch effective this evening through Tuesday later afternoon for the entire bight (offshore island) and coast region of Southern California. To save face in reading another paragraph similar to the two above, it means waterspouts, some of them being strong.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: Southern California Weather Force has issued a Winter Weather Advisory effective later on Tuesday.
Locations: Big Bear Zones.
For the most part, the storm system will have higher snow-levels, being of tropical nature. However, as the cold-air aloft moves in later on Tuesday, snow-levels will briefly drop behind the front to below 6,000 FT. This places a small winter for snow to fall in the Big Bear area. A few inches is not out of the question as a result.
MEDIUM RANGE: As per the forecast from the 5th, another strong system will hit this weekend, the weekend of January 14th.
LONG RANGE: We will have a break after around the 20th, but remember, more storms will hit this season. At the current time, my forecast from Fall 2022 for this entire season is the only forecast that predicted above average rainfall when every other source went warm and dry. You can click here to read that forecast. I am maintaining the same forecast for the rest of the season.
STORM MODELS: Use the images below for the SCWF rain, snow, wind forecast today through Tuesday evening, which will cover the entire storm passage.
Rain Model – VALID TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY 1-10-2023
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Snow Model – VALID TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY 1-10-2023
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Wind Model – VALID TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY 1-10-2023
SUPPORTING MEMBERS: Click Here To See The GPS Version Of This Model In Your Member Section Tab.
Raiden Storm Wind Gust Intensity Scale –
8. Extensive widespread damage.
7. Trees are broken or uprooted, building damage is considerable. – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over CERTAIN.
6. SOME Trees are broken or uprooted, building damage is possible. – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Likely, Do NOT recommend Traveling in this zone. This zone also is the starting zone where trees and powerlines will fall and damage cars and even kill people near or in them!
5. Slight damage occurs to buildings, shingles are blown off of roofs. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Possible if weight is not corrected.
4. Twigs and small branches are broken from trees, walking is difficult.
3. Large trees sway, becoming difficult to walk. POWER SHUTDOWN THRESHOLD DURING FIRE WEATHER / WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
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